Did Williams box Middlebury out of the NCAA Tournament the way that it knocked the Panthers out in the NESCAC postseason? Photo by Pete Meshanic, d3photography.com

By Pat Coleman 
D3sports.com

Our mock bracket used to be one or two of us poring over the numbers and picking a bunch of teams, then setting up a bracket. It was the 1990's and early 2000's equivalent of the old boys' network, and that made sense, because that's how the NCAA Tournament was selected. 

The tournament is not selected that way anymore, however, and we, as always, have continued to evolve with the times. Matt Snyder helped with his indispensible strength-of-schedule work. Bob Quillman, Ryan Scott and Drew Pasteur (aka @D3bubble on Twitter) formed the rest of our committee, with Dave McHugh.

And, as usual, these picks do not influence the NCAA Tournament selection committee's picks, nor does our Top 25 poll. No national Top 25 is ever considered in an NCAA selection process.

Here are our projections.

• NCAA Selection Show broadcast at 12:30 p.m. ET
• Who's in automatically: 44 conference winners
• NCAA tournament FAQs

We start by projecting the regional rankings for each of the 10 regions because that's how the process actually starts. The regional committees that have been producing those rankings do it one more time and then send them to the national tournament selection committee. That committee may make adjustments to the regional rankings, which can alter which teams are regionally ranked, which then changes some teams' records against regionally ranked opponents (one of the criteria in selecting at-large teams).

Eventually the national committee ends up with a final list of regional rankings, which they will announce after the brackets are released. The rankings include teams that have clinched automatic bids, which are set aside for the bracketing stage. Then the highest ranked team without an automatic bid within each region comes to the table for consideration as an at-large candidate. There are 10 teams up for consideration at any point, one from each region. When a team is picked, the next highest ranked team within that region comes to the table.

We knew there were a number of obvious picks who were going to make the NCAA Tournament, no matter what, and rather than go through the extensive debate, we placed the following teams in the field as at-large selections: UW-Platteville, Illinois Wesleyan, Williams, UW-La Crosse, Washington U., Mount Union.

Once we get to this point, this is what the board looks like, the 10 teams actually being considered, with listings of the three numerical categories of D-III winning percentage, D-III strength of schedule, record against regionally ranked opponents:

Region 1: Middlebury, .750, .545, 3-4
Region 2: Mass-Dartmouth, .857, .549, 3-1
Region 3: Rochester, .680, .586, 7-7
Region 4: Rowan, .821, .529, 4-5
Region 5: Swarthmore, .815, .545, 5-1
Region 6: Guilford, .720, .531, 3-4
Region 7: Case Western Reserve, .750, .556, 6-5
Region 8: Wheaton (Ill.), .769, .558, 5-5
Region 9: UW-Whitewater, .600, .591, 5-8
Region 10: Chapman, .833, .542, 4-4

The seventh-round team taken was Wheaton. The Thunder were replaced by Hanover, which has an .808 winning percentage but just a .507 SOS.

Case Western Reserve followed at the eighth spot. One of the benefits of playing in the UAA is that your conference can get ranked highly in multiple regions, and racking up 11 results against regionally ranked opponents doesn't hurt. Case was replaced by Calvin, which has a .731 winning percentage, a .542 SOS and a 5-5 mark against regionally ranked opponents.

The ninth team taken is Mass-Dartmouth. At 24-4 with a pretty solid SOS, and a 3-1 record against regionally ranked opponents that includes a win against Wesleyan, the Corsairs should be safely in the postseason. Babson joins the board from Region 2, with a .720 winning percentage, a .577 SOS and a 3-5 mark against regionally ranked opponents.

One thing that is worth noting here -- there are nearly 25% more regionally ranked teams than there used to be so there are more results against those regionally ranked opponents. Not all results against regionally ranked opponents are equal, and they never have been. But even more so this year.

And hey, listen, it was a long and convoluted conversation. Watch the show if you want to know more. At one point, our committee took two NEWMAC teams in a row. Rowan was the subject of some discussion. Rochester went 12th overall, followed by fellow 2005 Final Four team Calvin.

Our projected 20 at-large bids go to UW-Platteville, Illinois Wesleyan, Williams, UW-La Crosse, Washington U., Mount Union, Wheaton (Ill.), Case Western Reserve, Mass-Dartmouth, Chapman, Swarthmore, Calvin, Heidelberg, Eastern, RPI, Rowan, Babson, Emerson and Utica.

Here's who was left on the board when Utica was selected 20th.

Here's how we would pair them up:

Each pod is set up the same, with teams "seeded" 1-4, and the host team playing the 4 in the first round.

Top left quadrant

Our No. 1 overall seed UW-Oshkosh hosts Blackburn, with Case Western Reserve playing Dubuque
Pomona-Pitzer (a host team because of geography) hosts Trinity (Texas), with Mary Hardin-Baylor playing Chapman
Emory hosts Averett, with Wabash playing Berry
Elmhurst hosts Northwestern, with Whitworth playing Washington & Jefferson

Bottom left quadrant

Our top seed in that bracket, Randolph-Macon, hosts Medaille, with Susquehanna playing Stevens
Williams hosts Penn State-Harrisburg, with Johns Hopkins playing Emerson
Christopher Newport hosts Neumann, with Eastern playing Utica
WPI hosts Husson, with Oswego State playing Rowan

Top right quadrant

Our top seed in that bracket, Wesleyan hosts Mitchell, with Keene State playing Nazareth
UW-Platteville hosts Cornell, with Wheaton (Ill.) playing Calvin
Mount Union hosts Baruch, with Swarthmore playing Yeshiva
Illinois Wesleyan hosts Marian, with Washington U. playing St. John's 

Bottom right quadrant

Our top seed in that bracket, Marietta hosts Wilson, with Rochester playing Vassar
Stockton hosts Westfield State, with Nichols playing Babson
St. Joseph (Conn.) hosts Hood, with Mass-Dartmouth playing RPI
UW-La Crosse hosts Franklin, with Hope playing Heidelberg

Keep an eye on D3hoops.com for coverage of the bracket reveal on Monday, and post your questions in the comments section below.