Nobody got to cut the nets down in Atlanta, but many teams cut the nets down on Thursday, March 12, 2020, after the 2019-20 season was unceremoniously truncated by the spread of the COVID-19 virus. That includes Justin Summers, who participated in a net-cutting ceremony at Brockport. Brockport athletics photo

By Ryan Scott
D3hoops.com

Today is Thursday, March 16, 2020.

This is the day I was supposed to fly to Fort Wayne, Indiana for the fourth and fifth rounds of the Division III men’s basketball NCAA Tournament.

That didn’t happen. COVID-19 happened.

I was one of the few spectators present for the first round at Johns Hopkins, played without fans. A lot of sports talked about going without spectators, but only Division III actually did it – the men at Johns Hopkins and the women at Amherst. It was already a strange tournament, and then it wasn’t a tournament at all.

• The greatest NCAA Tournament game never attended: Feature by Penn State-Harrisburg
• 2020 Division III men's basketball NCAA Tournament bracket

Donyae Baylor-Carroll and his Penn State-Harrisburg teammates had already shocked the Division III world in the opening weekend. Penn State-Harrisburg athletics photo

It took a week or so to overcome the loss and shock and even be able to write anything. I’m sure it will take the players and coaches and parents much longer. The seniors are now starting to lose their commencement ceremonies and those will almost certainly not be the end of our sacrifices.

I’m writing this well before we know what this global pandemic will entail, partly to be a piece of history. I hope it’s not in bad taste when it's published (although, I suppose, if that’s true, you'll never see this).

Regardless, I’m going to walk through the end of the tournament as it might have been. I’ll pick and choose from the last 16 teams based on their performance in the rounds we actually saw, taking into consideration matchups and styles and locations. My track record on predictions has been spotty, but, in 2020, three of the “underdog” teams I’d been pumping up all season were still playing, so maybe this is one season I could read well.

Feel free to disagree, but I think the 2020 Division III men’s basketball NCAA Tournament would have gone down like this:

I’ve loved the talent on display at Whitworth all season. Ben College is one of the best shooters in the country. He survived a lot of double teams, but was consistently dependable to score when needed. They also have a tremendous point guard in Isaiah Hernandez (I’m sure helped by assistant coach, Kenny Love, one of my all time favorite Division III point guards) who would handle the intense Swarthmore defense well.

The Pirates also have two very good post players, with the size and skill to compete with the Garnet’s Zac O’Dell and Nate Shafer. In the end, though, a cross country flight and playing on Swarthmore’s home court would be too much for Whitworth. They have some depth, not near the depth Swarthmore throws at you.

The Pirates could keep it close for a long time and the sheer number of tall guys they could run out would give Swarthmore trouble, but, as with many opponents this year, the relentlessness of the Garnet defense and their sheer refusal to make mistakes would squeak out a win at the end, 78-73.

Brockport and Tufts were very evenly matched teams, if not in style, than in size. Justin Summers seemed all but recovered from his injury and more than capable of matching up with Luke Rogers. Rogers has the physical advantage down low, but Summers is a little more athletic and could draw him away from the basket just a bit. On the outside, I think Tufts’ Eric Savage is a little better than anyone on Brockport, but the Golden Eagles have more depth.

Brockport has home court advantage and the Jumbos typically turned the ball over more than their opponents all season, relying on a rebounding advantage to cover their mistakes. That advantage still exists against Greg Dunne’s club, but it’s not enough to overcome Brockport’s superior perimeter defense and team discipline. Brockport survives 85-76.

We then come to Tommies–Johnnies IV: the one for all the marbles. It won’t hurt to reveal now, in the future, when St. Thomas has presumably been invited to join the Big 10, that coach John Tauer asked me to rip into his team a bit for motivation. I didn’t say anything on Hoopsville I didn’t believe – they were smaller and less talented than St. John’s and it was hard for me to see how they could beat the Johnnies in this matchup – I didn’t feel the need to hold back, though.

In the MIAC championship the Tommies had just five turnovers, but they were outrebounded 22-36 in a game St. John's senior center Lucas Walford didn’t even play. You add his 11 points and 10 rebounds to a game the Johnnies already won by nearly 20 and it’s a very tough sell. Tauer and his guys did amazing work with one of the toughest non-conference schedules in recent memory and defeating my pick to win it all, Platteville, on their home floor, but the Johnnies cruise here and pick up steam, 90-75.

Zach Hanson and St. John's had flown past St. Thomas in the MIAC final by 20 points on Feb. 29. Photo by Ryan Coleman, d3photography.com

The final round of sixteen game on the left side of the bracket is the real wild card. Pomona-Pitzer and their largely unknown west-coast brand of power defense against the rising stars of the midwest in Elmhurst. This would’ve been the biggest game ever played on Elmhurst’s campus and you cannot discount that atmosphere. However, the Sagehens had just won a stunner at Emory, with a raucous crowd of its own the week before. They were battle tested, road tested, and ready.

Jake Rhode is one of the best guards in the country, but he’s also 5-11. Pomona has a distinct size advantage, both in the front court and on the perimeter. What’s been most impressive about them, to me, is their ability to throw five nearly interchangeable, lanky tall guys onto the court to stymie anything you try to do offensively.

They also have Micah Elan, another of the very best guards in the county. Between his size and scoring ability and 6-9 Alex Preston, who came on like gangbusters after a midseason injury, I just don’t think the matchup favors the Bluejays. I don’t think Pomona-Pitzer starts as slowly as it had the week before and I think Elmhurst struggles to catch up, falling at home 92-85.

• Joe Sager 2020 feature: Sagehens still flying high

Next is the Battle for Ohio, with Mount Union at Wittenberg. Except maybe Yeshiva, no team improved their standing in the eyes of a nation in the first two rounds more than Mount Union. Dominating the OAC is impressive, but we were still not sure what we had there until they stepped on the floor in the NCAA Tournament.

Wittenberg was dragged all year for an incredibly weak non-conference schedule and their play against Wooster was head-scratching, despite the rivalry. Still, I think they were poised to show something big in the tournament. However, this was the wrong opponent to draw. Wittenberg’s three great seniors, Bertemes, Seipel, and Pumory would come up big, for sure, but the Purple Raiders have four seniors of their own who were making a statement.

The Mount Union guards can really score the basketball, especially inside, and I don’t see anything from Wittenberg that could slow that down. That football school hadn’t played a game with a single-digit margin since January, and while the Tigers would hang in longer than most of us expected, it would be a Mount Union victory 95-83.

Great idea ... Mount Union and Wittenberg each cut a net down #whyd3 @marchmadness @NCAADIII #d3hoops pic.twitter.com/Vww1U8Dsom

— Mount Union Purple Raiders (@purpleraiders) March 12, 2020

Yeshiva at Randolph-Macon is a matchup between the most efficient offense in the country and the most efficient defense. The Maccabees shot 53% from the floor on the year and the Yellowjackets allowed just 37%. Buzz Anthony is one of the best point guards in the country – tremendous at getting the ball to the right guy; Ryan Turell is one of the best scorers and the Yeshiva offense is predicated on all five guys moving the ball and finding the right man.

Ryan Turell was just a sophomore in 2020 when he and his Yeshiva teammates played their way into the Sweet 16. Penn State-Harrisburg athletics file photo

Randolph-Macon has the name and reputation, the dominated one of the top conferences in the country, and their depth of talent is truly impressive. I don’t think this would be an easy game, though, especially relying so heavily on two freshmen in increasingly pressure-filled games. There’s just no one on their schedule that even comes close to replicating what the Maccabees throw at you.

Yeshiva has been prone to sleepy periods. They get lax on defense or lose focus with the ball from time to time – and the Yellowjackets would pounce on those opportunities. That’s why I don’t predict a dominant blowout like we’ve seen in the earlier rounds. I do think The Macs have proven they can rip through a defense – even a good one – and I’m not sure Randolph-Macon is quite capable of scoring with them. Despite the great crowd in Virginia, I see Yeshiva’s dream season surviving with an 87-81 victory.

• Ryan Scott 2020 feature: Yeshiva playing for higher goal

(Oh, I also think we might actually get this game for real during the 2021 tournament; both teams lose two seniors, but will likely be better overall the following year.)

Hobart–Christopher Newport is the wild card of the right side of the bracket. As John Krikorian said on Hoopsville in 2020, his team has kind of snuck up on us this year, definitely rounding into form in February. Their offense is now as good as their defense and freshman, Ian Anderson has really come into his own. Hobart has proven they can match up with anyone and aren’t afraid of a big moment; defeating Springfield in that environment was truly impressive.

The team numbers look very much the same across the board – field goal and three-point percentages on both ends of the floor, rebounding, scoring margin, etc – Hobart would have the edge in free throws, which could be big with two teams who like to score in the paint, but CNU was averaging 10 points per game more than the Statesmen and, as noted, the offense has been getting better as the year goes along.

The Captains have been in this position before; these players understand how to deal with the hoopla and distraction very well. That, coupled with a long trip for Hobart, and the atmosphere of the home court, I see CNU pulling out a squeaker – maybe a 40 foot Jason Aigner three to win it at the buzzer, 82-81.

Out final third round matchup is a doozy: WashU at North Central. Here we have the senior-laden underachieving Cardinals against the finally healthy uber-talented Bears. In dispatching the defending champs, Connor Raridon, Matt Cappelletti, and Blaise Meredith stepped up in ways we’ve always expected, but rarely seen on this stage. They played like their careers were on the line, because they were. WashU has suffered through injuries all season; they aren’t 100% healthy, but they’re as full strength as they would get in 2020 and really cruising through the tournament thus far.

This is a matchup where the season stats don’t matter as much as the box scores from the last two weeks. Justin Hardy and Jack Nolan have been rolling and the WashU three point barrage was hitting. North Central has the advantage of being at home and playing against essentially the style two games in a row: WashU’s Pat Juckem installed much of what they run at UW-Oshkosh.

Justin Hardy was one of Wash U's stars in 2020. In April of 2021, he was diagnosed with stomach cancer, and he died on May 29, 2022, inspiring the phrase HardyStrong, still used today. WUSTL Photo Services

The real difference may be WashU’s senior center, Hank Hunter. He’s missed big chunks of the season and hadn’t really played effectively since December. We can’t count on him contributing at all, which changes the game in North Central’s favor. This is likely the game of the tournament, but the Cardinals come out on top in a game where both teams shoot over 50% from the floor and seemingly hit every shot. I’ve got this a 92-90 North Central win.

This leaves us with eight teams for Fort Wayne: Swarthmore, Brockport, St. John's, Pomona-Pitzer, Mount Union, Yeshiva, Christopher Newport, and North Central.

This season’s Swarthmore team has not been as good shooting from outside and they haven’t been forcing as many turnovers, which has led to more close games and fewer of those truly dominant stretches that made them so scary in their run to the final last year. Still, what’s remained is the rebounding advantage and I think that’s where they clip Brockport’s wings. Swarthmore will definitely struggle and I’m sure it would be close, but the Garnet have last year’s experience in Fort Wayne to build on and Brockport will definitely need some time to adjust. Justin Summers will be the best big man Swarthmore has had to deal with all season, but he’s still on the mend and hasn’t been hitting the boards enough.

Swarthmore just goes too deep without any real dropoff in production. I don’t think the stars align for Brockport and they fall 80-75.

Pomona-Pitzer has gone a long way with that shutdown defense and perimeter size advantage. It’s not going to work the same way against 6-6 Zach Hanson and 6-8 Lucas Walford. Jubie Alade, the lead guard and scorer, is 6-4; he’s not going to be as bothered by that length either. St. John's can also score to keep up with the Sagehens.

Micah Elan may likely have the kind of individual game that will go down in lore, but it won’t be enough to overcome the barrage from the Johnnies. I say Elan scores 40 in an 82-65 loss.

I’m pretty confident a high-powered, Fort Wayne matchup between Mount Union and Yeshiva ends 120-115; I’m just not sure which way it goes. Yeshiva would struggle with 6-11 John Carroll on the inside, but he would have to stay on the floor and I’m not sure the need for scoring would allow it.

Mount Union has beaten a lot of teams that can score, but they’ve not done a great job at limiting that scoring. Yeshiva has struggled when the other team can match them point for point. Mount won’t have the home court advantage any more, but their fans are used to traveling for big games, so they should be out in force. We know Yeshiva has a worldwide following, but whether they’ll bring enough in person fans to make a difference at the game is truly up in the air.

My gut says Mount Union is the better squad, but they needed 53 points from Nathan Bower-Malone to put away a hot-shooting York (Pa.) team in the second round. Ryan Turell is more than capable of matching Bower-Malone point for point and the Macs have more weapons in support. I think the Purple Raiders can be exposed on the glass, but Yeshiva has never played against this much talent for so many games in a row. I’d love to put the Macs through – and I believe they could win this game – but they’ll be even better next season and it’s Mount Union’s time to shine.

Win or lose, Christopher Newport will wear North Central out. They will throw a relentless defense and wave after wave of attackers at the basket. While the Cardinals have about as good a top six as anyone in the country, the bench hasn’t been as tested.  No team is easy at this point in the season, but it might be a favorable draw for the Captains.

Still, the narrative I’m riding here is the last chance nature of the run for Raridon and Cappelletti (among others). So many seniors and juniors – experience matched by Christopher Newport, but not in minutes on the floor – these guys have been performing at the highest level in one of the best leagues for a long time and I think their combination of talent and size wins out in the end, 67-60.

We have a Final Four of Swarthmore, St. John's, Mount Union, and North Central. At the start of the year, we didn’t quite see Mount Union coming, but the rest of those teams we knew would be very, very good. These are four power programs that have proven themselves throughout the year and the tournament. It would be an incredible Saturday in Fort Wayne.

Swarthmore’s system keeps them in games. They execute an offense and don’t make mistakes. They rebound hard and pressure on defense, but they’ve only once played a team with the size and talent of St. John’s and it was Oshkosh in the final last year. I see very much the same conclusion here.

It’s possible Swarthmore’s guards could get on a hot shooting streak and keep them in it. We also shouldn’t underestimate the value of having been there the year before. I just haven’t seen consistently the level of play we know Swarthmore is capable of producing. St. John's 75-64.

As much as I hemmed and hawed over Yeshiva, I don’t think either they nor Mount Union would beat North Central in this matchup. As the season began, there was a lot we didn’t know about the Cardinals and our panel still ranked them No. 3. As the season has progressed, they haven’t been perfect, but they’ve delivered on most of the promise and they were only getting better in March.

They have as many capable scorers as Yeshiva, tons of experience – four seniors and seven juniors – and the size, length, and athleticism to really bother the Mount Union guards. The Raiders are playing great basketball at the best time of year, but I think they hit their ceiling on the season.  We’ll send North Central to Atlanta with an 85-76 win.

North Central has struggled with big guys this season. They have the height and length to be a nuisance to most teams, but, as evidenced by Jack Flynn’s performance against them in the second round, a true, talented post player is North Central’s biggest weakness. St John's has two of them. Obviously, in a national title game, either team can win. I see Meredith and Cappelletti and Raridon going all out and playing at their best. I’m just not sure it will be enough to deny the Johnnies a title, 78-74.

The 2020 NCAA Division III Men’s Basketball Championship didn’t get a chance to finish. It’s silly to think we could possibly predict how things would go. None of these teams will ever get that opportunity back and we’ll just have to live with that. It doesn’t hurt to guess, though, and if it gets people talking and remembering all the great things about the 2020 season, that’s much better than dwelling on what was not to be.