By Pat Coleman
Executive Editor, D3sports.com
For imagination, this bracket merits a perfect score: zero.
Wheaton athletics file photo Ben Panner is a Thunder player not named Kent Raymond. A guard, he averages 12.7 points per game and has shot 47 percent from the floor. |
This bracket might as well have been drawn up in 1996, for there is so little to reflect the progress Division III made in bracketing under the Pools system.
Why, if you have two brackets that are stronger than the other two, and the public knows it, would you pair them in the national semifinals? Flopping the John Carroll Bracket with the Middlebury Bracket or the Ithaca Bracket costs the NCAA absolutely zero.
Or, since the Trinity island group and the Puget Sound island group are flying pretty much anywhere they go, why not swap their placement? Why not exchange the Wheaton pod for the Centre pod, or exchange UW-Whitewater or Washington U. (which can bus to Centre) for Transylvania (which can bus to Elmhurst)? These are free changes as well.
For some reason, they all but guaranteed an East Side vs. West Side title game. There's nothing wrong with an East Side-West Side title game, but it would be nice if there could be a chance for a West Side-West Side title game or an East Side-East Side title game.
(Generally the Northeast/East/Mid-Atlantic/Atlantic is the East Side and South/Great Lakes/Midwest/West is the West Side.)
Can't promise I won't bring this up later. For now, on with the countdown. In the tournament preview I pick a Cinderella team (a surprise), a disappointment and a champion in each of the four brackets. We try to define Cinderella as a road team that will make the Sweet 16, and the disappointment as a home team which will lose.
The John Carroll Bracket
Maryville, Tenn. (20-6) at Trinity, Texas (23-4), winner plays Texas-Dallas (24-4) at Trinity
Thomas More (19-8) at Capital (24-4), Gettysburg (18-8) vs. Wooster (22-6)
Medaille (21-7) at John Carroll (23-6), Brockport State (14-14) vs. Carnegie Mellon (19-6)
Averett (20-6) at Centre (23-4), Transylvania (21-5) vs. Guilford (21-5)
To me, this is clearly the second-best bracket, after the Bracket of Death. The champion of this bracket won't escape without a test, that's for sure. There are a handful of teams that are hot at the right time and it's not out of the realm of possibility that any of 11 teams could win this bracket.
Most likely to disappoint: Capital. The Crusaders haven't looked like a Top 10 team as much as when they got off to a 17-1 start. They're 7-3 over their past 10 games, and that includes needing to go to overtime at home against a 5-20 team. Perhaps Thomas More can't beat them, but either Gettysburg or Wooster can.
Cinderella story: There are a couple of good options here. I could foresee Maryville (Tenn.), Wooster, Gettysburg, Carnegie Mellon or Guilford advancing to the Sweet 16 on the road. But I like Transylvania better than any of those. The Pioneers have lost just once since Jan. 7 and are 3-0 against tournament teams, including a win against Centre which was Transy's first game, but Centre's third.
Champion: John Carroll over Wooster.
The St. Thomas Bracket
Fontbonne (18-8) at Wheaton, Ill. (24-3), UW-Platteville (22-5) vs. Hope (21-7)
UW-Whitewater (22-5) at Elmhurst (20-7), Washington U. (23-2) vs. Lawrence (19-6)
Aurora (16-12) at St. Thomas (27-0), Cornell (21-6) vs. UW-Stevens Point (23-4)
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (21-6) at Whitworth (22-5), winner to Puget Sound (24-3)
I am not sure what can be said that hasn't been said already. There are certainly a lot of good teams here, teams that could win or would be favored to make the Elite Eight in other brackets. Teams that won't get out of the second round here.
Most likely to disappoint: Tough call, but the odds are I have to go with St. Thomas here. At No. 1 and unbeaten, St. Thomas would probably have to get to the Elite Eight to avoid being considered a disappointment. To get to the Elite Eight the Tommies could have to go through UW-Stevens Point and Puget Sound.
Cinderella story: Much has been made of Lawrence's big run to end the season, and we've done a lot of the making of that. But running into Wash U so soon makes that a less palatable pick. I'm not prepared to say the defending national champion is going down on opening night. The gap between the strong teams and the rest of the bracket is pretty large. I think Whitworth is the team best suited to wear the label.
Champion: Toughest call of the night, but going with Wheaton over St. Thomas.
The Middlebury Bracket
St. Joseph's, Maine (21-7) at Bridgewater State (20-6), winner to Middlebury (24-3)
MIT (20-8) at Rhode Island College (23-5), University of New England (24-4) vs. Farmingdale State (24-3)
Brooklyn (22-5) at St. Lawrence (20-6), Elms (26-1) vs. SUNYIT (22-6)
RPI (15-12) at Richard Stockton (25-2), Gwynedd-Mercy (22-5) vs. Amherst (21-6)
There are some interesting matchups here, including two teams with similar styles in University of New England and Farmingdale State in the first round. Typically teams that don't take care of the ball don't fare well in the NCAA Tournament but one of these two, which average 17 and 16 turnovers per game, respectively, will advance. We all got to see what Wheaton's Kent Raymond did on the March stage last year and there's another star in this bracket as well.
Most likely to disappoint: Elms. The Blazers have faced just one tournament team, despite how many there are in New England, as both the conference and non-conference schedules are significant downgrades from the 2008 slate that helped get them within half a second of the Sweet 16.
Cinderella story: MIT. If guard Jimmy Bartolotta is this year's Kent Raymond, then the Engineers will go a long way. (Never mind the possibility that Raymond himself could be this year's Kent Raymond.)
Champion: Middlebury over Richard Stockton.
The Ithaca Bracket
Virginia Wesleyan (17-12) at Widener (22-5), Rochester Tech (19-8) vs. Salem State (21-6)
Wesley (18-9) at Franklin and Marshall (22-5), Brandeis (17-8) vs. Scranton (21-6)
Husson (16-11) at Worcester Polytech (20-5), Baruch (23-5) vs. Mass-Dartmouth (25-3)
St. Joseph's, L.I. (24-3) at DeSales (22-5), winner to Ithaca (24-2)
The two CUNYAC teams, the two NEWMAC teams and the two Skyline teams could meet in the Final Four. So could the two Little East teams. Two Centennial teams could meet in the championship game. Teams from those conferences have combined for zero national titles in D-III men's basketball, while the WIAC has eight and wasn't even a charter member of Division III.
Most likely to disappoint: Franklin and Marshall. The Diplomats are coming into the tournament on a severe down note, having lost three of four and prompting people to question who of any consequence they've beaten this season. They could be one of the few teams to loseon their home floor on Friday night.
Cinderella story: Brandeis. Nearly a third of their schedule has been against NCAA Tournament teams, and by the way, almost all against fellow at-large teams, not one against the champion of a lesser conference.
Champion: Ithaca over Brandeis. And very, very tempted to go the other direction. But my guts are only taking me this far.
The Salem Bracket
John Carroll vs. Wheaton (Ill.): John Carroll's legendary depth could give the Thunder some trouble but I saw Wheaton handle another team that threw waves of players at it rather easily on a Saturday afternoon in Grinnell, Iowa. And that game was with Wheaton missing big man Andy Wiele. Wheaton advances.
Middlebury vs. Ithaca: These teams are unknown quantities this deep in the tournament. Since they play each other, one of them should get the Salem jitters out of its system. I think Ithaca has more weapons, but often teams that rely a lot on the three-pointer struggle on the first night in the Salem Civic Center, as the back walls of the arena are a little further back than most D-III players shoot at on a regular basis. Middlebury advances.
Championship: Wheaton over Middlebury. I don't suspect many of us would have picked the second half of this matchup when the season started, though some of us would probably have picked the Thunder.
If this happens, it'll be the CCIW's first national title since 1997. The NESCAC has won two since the last time the Walnut and Bronze went home to Illinois.