Men's NCAA Tournament preview

Mar 01, 2023
Randolph-Macon's loss at Mary Washington was on Nov. 16, three and a half months ago.
Photo by Dan Hunter, d3photography.com
 

By Ryan Scott
D3hoops.com

Conference tournament weekend revealed the parity in Division III men’s basketball this season. We had almost 60% of top seeds go down early, leading to an unprecedented competition for Pool C selections. Resumes we thought would be shoo-ins on Saturday morning were pipe dreams by Sunday night.

As a result, we’ve got a bracket full of less proven teams sitting on hot streaks and gaudy records nursing their wounds. Will the fires be snuffed out or the flames fanned? Will the losses motivate contenders or presage doom to come? There’s only one way to find out!

On to the brackets:

Delvin Barnstable, along with his brother Miles, combine for 27.1 points per game for UW-Whitewater.
Photo by Ryan Coleman, d3photography.com
 

 

Top Left bracket

Scranton (20-7) vs N.C. Wesleyan (23-4); Wilson (19-8) at Randolph-Macon (27-1)
 John Carroll (22-4) vs Albertus Magnus (19-9); Marymount (17-10) at Oswego (25-2)
 Hamilton (19-8) vs Montclair State (22-5); Mitchell (23-4) at Johns Hopkins (23-4)
 UW-Whitewater (21-7) vs Wabash (21-7); Arcadia (15-11) at Case Western Reserve (21-3)

This is the all-business quadrant. Nothing flashy here. A few teams can get up and down the floor, but in nearly every case, these teams want to grind it out and steal possessions. It’s not that the basketball won’t be exciting, there just might not be too many highlight reel moments. There are very few minnows here - even the lower seeds are veteran tournament squads; every win will be well-earned.

Best First Round Game: Whitewater and Wabash are strong programs hitting on all cylinders at the right time. Battle tested, with big wins on the board and both are looking to prove their mettle after losing huge parts of last year’s squad. Neither would be favored in round two, but both are absolutely capable of upsetting CWRU and emerging from this pod. It all starts Friday!

If Seeds Hold: The second round matchup between John Carroll and Oswego State will be a barn burner. Both have tremendous guard play and no aversion to moving fast. Sophomore sensation, Luke Chicone, runs the show for JCU with an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5. Three players share playmaking duty for Oswego, so you never know where the pass will come from. Both teams feel they’ve been underrated this season and have something to prove!

What Will Happen: Is it the Randolph-Macon invitational? Maybe, but it won’t be easy. The Jackets will get to Fort Wayne on a 66-game home winning streak, first beating Wilson and N.C Wesleyan. Then they’ll host two upstate NY teams the second weekend — Oswego rides home court to a tight, high scoring victory over JCU and Hamilton con.tinues their NESCAC-winning hot streak and running right through Johns Hopkins. It will culminate in a huge clash with Case Western Reserve (after they sneak by Whitewater), who will make one or two mistakes too many, something Randolph-Macon specializes in doing to opponents, leaving the Spartans just short of the Final Four.

The Vikings of North Park are flying high in a generational way.
North Park athletics photo
 

Bottom Left bracket

Utica (22-4) vs Babson (19-8); Cal Lutheran (13-13) at Rowan (22-5)
Hope (19-9) vs Bethany Lutheran (23-4); Fontbonne (16-11) at UW-Oshkosh (21-6)
North Park (22-5) vs Sewanee (19-9); Coe (16-12) at Washington U. (19-6)
NYU (18-7) vs Lancaster Bible (20-7); Anderson (18-9) at Mount Union (25-2)

This is a quadrant of second chances. Utica was likely the last at-large selection; Babson, Cal Lutheran, Hope, Fontbonne, Sewanee, Coe, AND Anderson all needed to upset conference favorites to get in; Rowan, North Park, and NYU are all experiencing resurgences to national prominence and looking to prove themselves on the big stage!

Sleeping Giant: The UMAC is no stranger to first round upsets, but they’ve often been plucky teams willing themselves to victory. Bethany Lutheran is different. They rolled through an ARC gauntlet early in the year and played MIAC champs, Carleton, close on the road. This is a tested team, ranked 62 by Massey, ahead of NESCAC champs, Hamilton. Hope is a really talented squad in their own right, but BLC in the second weekend would only be a surprise to those not paying attention.

If Seeds Hold: The matchup between NYU’s Spencer Freedman and Collen Gurley would be a must-watch for all Division III fans. Both are D-I transfers (Gurley went from Mount Union to Youngstown State and back) with size and speed who can shoot the lights out and will not be intimidated by a big moment. Neither is a one-man team, but they sure make these squads go — and as we all know, guard play wins titles (unless you have Jack Flynn).

What Will Happen: I think North Park could beat any team in the top half of the bracket, unfortunately, they don’t match up well with WashU or Mount Union, who will top NYU and the Bears for a UAA sweep. Up top, Babson is on a hot streak, but I don’t know if they’ve got the tempo to run with Rowan at home. I like Bethany Lutheran to top Hope, but Oshkosh has too bad a taste in their mouths from the early exit last year. They will fall short of Fort Wayne, though — the Purple Raiders have First Team All-OACers coming off the bench and are ready to prove UMU is not just a football school.

Alex Sobel and his teammates have a rematch awaiting them in the second round, if they advance.
Photo by Pete Meshanic, d3photography.com
 

Top Right bracket

St. John Fisher (21-7) vs Whitworth (18-9); SUNY-Delhi (20-8) at Swarthmore (24-3)
Tufts (19-7) vs Widener (19-8); Baruch (22-5) at Keene State (26-1)
Rochester (16-9) vs Nichols (23-5); Worcester State (22-5) at Middlebury (19-5)
Mary Washington (19-8) vs St. Lawrence (19-7); La Roche (20-7) at Stockton (22-5)

This is the rematch quadrant. Whitworth gets the trip to Philly they were promised in 2020 only to have COVID prevent. Middlebury has a guaranteed rematch if they make the second round, having beaten Nichols this year and looking to avenge a two point loss at Rochester in December. If they get through that to the final eight, maybe there’s a hungry Keene State squad looking to square their only loss on the season.

No… but Maybe?: Worcester State played the first game of the season, at midnight on Nov. 8. The whole Division III world watched them go toe to toe with TWO WPI All-American bigs and fall two points short. Now they head to Vermont to face Alex Sobel, the biggest big of them all, whose team has lost three of its last four? I’m not sure I can pick that upset (Middlebury’s guard play and depth are also excellent), but, man, you know, maybe?

Beware the Big Man: Sobel, Jeff Hunter, Ryan Algier, Daniel Cook, Greg Rowson, Michael Caprise — and there’s size at Tufts and Worcester and Whitworth, too. If Division III basketball has done anything over the last decade, it’s get bigger. Skilled post players used to be unicorns, now they’re falling out of trees. It’s hard to win without one and it’ll be even tougher if you’re slotted in this bracket. If you like watching big boys bang down low, this is your place.

What Will Happen: Keene State is an overwhelming force. Tufts is pure power. Swarthmore is hard-nosed discipline. Only one can emerge from the top of this bracket. I pick Keene State — home for the first weekend and better than the squad who won at Swarthmore last year. St. John Fisher is the fourth first round winner, on a hot streak right now and Daniel Cook might be the best player in his pod.

I have to pick one host to lose first round and this year it’ll be Stockton. Hermie Carmichael’s La Roche squad is young, but already very experienced. I say they take advantage of Stockton’s sometimes inconsistent play to pull the upset. I don’t see them getting by Mary Washington, though, nor UMW getting past Middlebury, who gets revenge over Rochester, but falls to Keene State. I don’t feel great about it. The Owls don’t match up well with Tufts or Middlebury, but Ryan Cain’s teams always overperform in March and this year that means a trip to Fort Wayne.

In his last NCAA Tournament appearance, Jaecee Martin had 10 rebounds and nine assists for St. Joseph (Conn.), but also shot 1-for-8 and turned the ball over six times.
Photo by Pete Meshanic, d3photography.com
 

Bottom Right bracket

Hampden-Sydney (21-6) hosts Emory (17-8); Farmingdale State (21-7) vs Christopher Newport (24-3)
St. Thomas (22-3) vs East Texas Baptist (23-5); Schreiner (15-13) at Mary Hardin-Baylor (21-5)
Carleton (24-3) vs St. Norbert (19-7); Illinois College (25-2) at Wheaton (Ill.) (22-4)
Pomona-Pitzer (20-6) vs Williams (22-4); Chatham (17-11) at St. Joseph (Conn.) (27-1)

This quadrant is not one for scoring. Every point will come at a premium. Four of these teams are in the Top 20 nationally for field goal percentage defense and eight are in the Top 50. Each of the pods are perhaps a little stronger than average due to geography and two have top seeds unable to play at home. This is certainly the hardest part of the bracket to predict and probably the hardest from which to emerge. Whoever gets to Fort Wayne will have certainly earned it!

The Gauntlet: Christopher Newport matches up better against potential second weekend opponents, UMHB, Wheaton, and St. Joe’s than they do against the three teams in their opening pod. The committee set this bracket up to protect CNU’s second round hosting rights, but it’s going to take a herculean effort to get there. Hampden-Sydney is hosting and also one of three teams to beat CNU on the season.

The Phenom: Calvin’s giant newcomer, Jalen Overway, made headlines early with huge performances that propelled his team into the national spotlight. We thought the National Rookie of the Year was locked up by November. Quietly, though, Emory’s Benjamin Pearce has come on. He’s the second leading scorer in the UAA (ahead of a couple All-Americans) and the go-to guy on a tournament team, along with being the primary ball-handler with a nearly 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Whatever round Emory achieves, it will be on Pearce’s back and that’s something to see!

What Will Happen: As difficult as the path is, I think Christopher Newport has the skill and ability to do it. Falling just short last year is motivation and they’ve got the right balance of inside and outside scoring to top Hampden-Sydney, UMHB, and St. Joseph on the way. Emory might be the team of next season, but they’re not there yet. ETBU is on a hot streak, but UMHB steps up in March. Carleton can beat St. Norbert, but Wheaton’s veteran experience will be too much. Pomona tops Williams, but doesn’t have enough weapons to slow down the Bluejays.

CNU has the discipline to contain Mary Hardin-Baylor’s explosiveness and USJ has a roster full of grad students, just like Wheaton. A Christopher Newport/St. Joseph’s battle might be the best pure defensive showdown in a long time, but CNU has more ways to beat you, and does.

Final Four

Mount Union is used to overpowering teams, but Randolph-Macon won’t back down. Miles Mallory can hang with Christian Parker and then some. UMU’s size could give RMC a little trouble, but it will all come down to turnovers and the Yellowjackets are just a tiny bit better at taking care of the ball. They’ve also won in Fort Wayne before — and that makes a huge difference!

On the other side, Christopher Newport plays Keene State. Jeff Hunter and Trey Barber are both big, mobile, shot-blocking post players. Jahn Hines and Octavio Brito are both tall, physical guards, who can get to the rim. Both benches are full of guys who come through in big moments, and can score 20 if the team needs it. Still, CNU has been in big moments for a long time and that experience overcomes the individual brilliance of Keene’s stars.

Christopher Newport and Randolph-Macon are very familiar with each other. Outside of COVID, you have to go back to 2005-2006 to find the last time they did not square off. Last year’s only blemish for the defending champs was the game against the Captains. This year, Randolph-Macon won. These teams know each other. Many of them have been playing against each other since high school. They are elite defenses with diverse offensive weapons and all-time great coaches.

Last year, after beating WPI to advance to Fort Wayne, Josh Merkel entered the press room and immediately said to me, “thanks for picking us to lose this game, it really helped.” I feel like I’m in a “damned if I do, damned if I don’t situation.” Do I pick CNU and drive RMC to win or pick the champs to repeat and give Coach K the bulletin board material?

Josh Merkel's gesture is not meant for Ryan Scott, but perhaps it could be.
Photo by Dan Hunter, d3photography.com
 

In the end, none of that matters. Randolph-Macon will be at home most of this tourney. They have experienced players, great coaching, and what passes for the “easier” route these days in Division III. These guys have lost once in 50 games and while they’ve looked more vulnerable this season without Buzz Anthony, I’m riding the hot hand until it cools off.

For the first time since 2009, we’re having a repeat champion: Randolph-Macon to win it all!