We think Widener slipped a couple spots in the final Mid-Atlantic rankings. What does that mean for the Pride's chances to make the Tournament? Photo by David Morgan - Stylish Images

Our mock selections are a team effort. Alan Babbitt, Chris Mitchell, BJ Spigelmeyer and Gordon Mann walked through the process on Sunday's Hoopsville Selection Special, with Dave McHugh serving as moderator and guide. Ryan Scott and Pat Coleman handled the bracketing.

Remember that these picks do not influence the NCAA Tournament selection committee's picks, nor does our Top 25 poll. Those are the two most common misconceptions for people who don't like our picks. 

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We start by projecting the regional rankings for each of the eight regions in Division III basketball because that's how the process actually starts. The regional advisory committees that have been producing regional rankings do it one more time and then send them to the national tournament selection committee. That committee can adjust the regional committees' selections, which then alters which teams are regionally ranked, which then changes some teams' records against regionally ranked opponents (one of the primary criteria for selecting at-large teams).

Compared to Wednesday’s regional rankings, we made a couple of key adjustments:

• Atlantic: Cabrini (1-1 this week) steps in front of Mount St. Mary (0-1). We did this last year, too, with Marymount stepping in front of Mount St. Mary and got it wrong. Fool us once...
• Central: UW-Oshkosh replaces North Park at the bottom of this region, which adds a win over a regionally ranked team for a bunch of schools. We also bumped UW-La Crosse in front of Benedictine.
• Mid-Atlantic: Gettysburg and Albright move in front of Widener, while Haverford moves into the bottom of the rankings. Both of those moves would help Gettysburg.
• South: We talked a lot about moving Emory in front of William Peace or Emory & Henry, but decided against it because the Committee didn’t rearrange the teams when they were placed that way earlier this week.

Eventually the national committee ends up with a final set of regional rankings, which we'll hopefully get to see again after the projections are released this year. Those rankings include teams that have clinched automatic bids, which are set aside for the bracketing stage. Then the highest ranked team without an AQ within each region comes to the table for consideration as an at-large candidate. There are eight teams up for consideration at any point, one from each region. When a team is picked, the next highest ranked team within that region comes to the table.

Like last season, the first selection is which team gets the lone Pool B bid reserved for teams in conferences without an automatic bid. Also, like last season, this is an easy call. Marymount should be the top team in the Atlantic Region rankings and a bunch of spots in front of their strongest competitor with Pool B, Cabrini, whom the Saints just beat in the conference title game. So there’s much less angst in Arlington, Va. this year than last.

Moving on to the 20 at-large bids, here's the order of our selections, with the lucky winner noted in bold. The candidates are listed by region in the following order for each round -- Northeast, Atlantic, East, Mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, South, Central and West.

Round 1: Tufts, Montclair State, Cortland, Gettysburg, Trine, Trinity (Texas), UW-Whitewater, Loras
Round 2: Amherst, Montclair State, Cortland, Gettysburg, Trine, Trinity (Texas), UW-Whitewater, Loras
Round 3: Western New England, Montclair State, Cortland, Gettysburg, Trine, Trinity (Texas), UW-Whitewater, Loras
Round 4: Western New England, Montclair State, Cortland, Gettysburg, Trine, Trinity (Texas), Wheaton (Ill.), Loras
Round 5: Western New England, Montclair State, Cortland, Gettysburg, Trine, Trinity (Texas), Wheaton (Ill.), Whitman
Round 6: Western New England, Montclair State, Cortland, Gettysburg, Trine, Texas-Dallas, Wheaton (Ill.), Whitman

The order may vary, but these teams are all safely into the field so it wouldn't matter until we get to bracketing.

We’re only six rounds in and we're already down to one team with a winning record against regionally ranked opponents (vRRO). Remember the criteria is results against regionally ranked opponents, not wins. Still, it’s better to be hanging around .500 in that category at this point. 

Wheaton (Ill.) has a 4-3 record and a head-to-head win over Texas-Dallas. But the Thunder also have a bad loss to Carroll, which we think may nullify the good win. Meanwhile the Comets have a win over Mary Hardin-Baylor, unlike Whitman. We went with Texas-Dallas next, which brings William Peace to the table. And even if we're wrong, Wheaton won't have to wait long.

Round 7: Western New England, Montclair State, Cortland, Gettysburg, Ohio Northern, Texas-Dallas, Wheaton (Ill.), Whitman

Cortland has a win over the East Region’s top-ranked team (SUNY New Paltz), so the Red Dragons get the nod next and the Knights of SUNY Geneseo take their place at the table. Gotta love the SUNYAC mascots.

Round 8: Western New England, Montclair State, Cortland, Gettysburg, Ohio Northern, William Peace, Wheaton (Ill.), Whitman
Round 9: Western New England, Montclair State, SUNY Geneseo, Gettysburg, Ohio Northern, William Peace, Wheaton (Ill.), Whitman
Round 10: Western New England, Montclair State, SUNY Geneseo, Gettysburg, Ohio Northern, William Peace, UW-La Crosse, Whitman
Round 11: Western New England, Montclair State, SUNY Geneseo, Gettysburg, John Carroll, William Peace, UW-La Crosse, Whitman
Round 12: Western New England, Montclair State, SUNY Geneseo, Gettysburg, John Carroll, William Peace, UW-La Crosse, Augsburg

At this point Montclair State has been sitting at the table for the entire process. Coincidentally, Montclair’s head coach Karin Harvey talked about how the national committee didn’t want teams to sit at the table for a long period of time. Same goes for Gettysburg in the Mid-Atlantic whose head coach, Nathan Davis, is also on the national selection committee. They will have to wait a little longer.

John Carroll has a win over Baldwin Wallace which is ranked in second in the region, so the Blue Streaks picked next. This effectively ends the night for the Great Lakes Region as St. Vincent steps to the table with an 0-4 record against regionally ranked teams.

Round 13: Western New England, Montclair State, SUNY Geneseo, Gettysburg, John Carroll, William Peace, UW-La Crosse, St. Thomas

What do we do with William Peace? The Pacers have a great winning percentage and a good win over Christopher Newport, but they also have the lowest strength-of-schedule (SOS) on the board and only two games against regionally ranked teams. And we still have Montclair State and Gettysburg sitting there. Heck, let’s give Peace a chance. And, yes, I’ve been waiting all night to use that line.

Round 14: Western New England, Montclair State, SUNY Geneseo, Gettysburg, St. Vincent, William Peace, UW-La Crosse, St. Thomas

Emory & Henry steps in with a 1-0 record and that one win is over Oglethorpe.  Montclair State finally comes off the board by virtue of its win over Rowan, which is second in the Atlantic Region. 

Round 15: Western New England, Montclair State, SUNY Geneseo, Gettysburg, St. Vincent, Emory & Henry, UW-La Crosse, St. Thomas

Cabrini takes Montclair's place if we guessed right on the Atlantic Region ranking reshuffling. Gettysburg gets a bid next, which gives every region at least one at-large entry. 

Round 16: Western New England, Cabrini, SUNY Geneseo, Gettysburg, St. Vincent, Emory & Henry, UW-La Crosse, St. Thomas

That allows Albright to come to the table with conference rival Widener anxiously waiting behind them in the Mid-Atlantic. The SUNYAC gets its third team into the field, allowing the UAA to finally get an at-large candidate into the discussion.

Round 17: Western New England, Cabrini, SUNY Geneseo, Albright, St. Vincent, Emory & Henry, UW-La Crosse, St. Thomas

New York University comes to the table, but brings a head-to-head loss to Cabrini, which is also sitting there.

St. Thomas’ best win came very early in the season against Trinity (Texas) before the Tommies lost All-American Kaia Porter to a season-ending injury. But neither the timing of that win nor Porter’s injury are criteria, and St. Thomas has the best win of anyone left on the table. So welcome to the Big Dance, Tommies.

Round 18: Western New England, Cabrini, New York University, Albright, St. Vincent, Emory & Henry, UW-La Crosse, St. Thomas

Which do you value more, strength-of-schedule or winning percentage? If it’s strength of schedule, UW-La Crosse is your pick with a 0.588 index. If it’s winning percentage, it’s Albright. We think the committee leans toward the latter.

Round 19: Western New England, Cabrini, New York University, Albright, St. Vincent, Emory & Henry, UW-La Crosse, Simpson

At this point we set aside St. Vincent (0-4 vRRO) and Simpson (low winning percentage). Emory & Henry has one win and it’s a good one (Oglethorpe) but that’s the Wasps’ only regionally ranked opponent. So we set them aside. New York University has a loss to Cabrini and head-to-head results are too big to ignore at this point. So the Violets are out.

That leaves us with Cabrini, UW-La Crosse, Western New England, and Widener. The Golden Bears have been at the table almost since the very beginning when Amherst and Tufts got the first two bids. WNEU has the third-lowest strength-of-schedule index, and we left the Golden Bears at the table. That feels like something that won't actually happen.

Widener came to the table with wins over Mid-Atlantic No. 1 (Messiah) and Atlantic No. 2 (Rowan) and a 4-4 record versus regionally ranked teams. They also have a better winning percentage overall, which we think the Committee will value. So the last bid goes to...

Round 20: Western New England, Cabrini, New York University, Widener, St. Vincent, Emory & Henry, UW-La Crosse, Simpson

Catholic comes to the table just as we're turning out the lights on the selection process. We move on to the bracketing...

Bracket 1

at Tufts: SUNY Poly at Tufts; Gettysburg vs. Emmanuel (hosts)
at Marymount: Framingham State at Marymount; Montclair State vs. Ohio Northern
at SUNY New Paltz: Husson at SUNY New Paltz; Amherst vs. Haverford
at Scranton: Endicott at Scranton; Ithaca vs. Eastern Connecticut

Because the men have priority during the first weekend this year, the opening weekend would be played at Emmanuel instead of Tufts. the Jumbos end up in a bracket with two other teams ranked first in a region -- Marymount (Atlantic) and SUNY New Paltz (East). Initially we wanted to put a Baldwin Wallace pod in this bracket. But the Yellow Jackets can't drive to Boston and the Jumbos' criteria is strong enough that we expect them to be one of the top four teams in the field, with an opportunity to host during the second weekend.

Bracket 2

at UW-Whitewater: Bethany Lutheran at UW-Whitewater; Augsburg vs. John Carroll
at Trinity (Texas): Texas-Dallas vs. Trinity (Texas); Mary Hardin-Baylor vs. Austin
at Whitman: Redlands at Whitman; George Fox vs. Smith
at Oglethorpe: Berea at Oglethorpe; Transylvania vs. William Peace

Geography cuts both ways in this bracket. During the first weekend, we get a tough and predictable pod in Texas because that preserves flights. Then we use those flights to get everyone to Wisconsin, Texas or Georgia in the second weekend, depending on who advances. At least Smith gets far out of region for its first round game.

Bracket 3

at Hope: La Roche at Hope; Loras vs. Edgewood
at Bethel: Monmouth at Bethel; Illinois Wesleyan vs. UW-Oshkosh
at Chicago: Grove City at Chicago; Trine vs. St. Thomas
at Wartburg: Webster at Wartburg; DePauw vs. Wheaton (Ill.)

If the home teams all advance, they could all drive to Hope around whom we've built this bracket. DePauw and Trine get tough first round matchups but that is often the case in this part of the country.

Bracket 4

at Messiah: New England College at Bowdoin; SUNY Geneso vs. Randolph-Macon
at Baldwin Wallace: Brooklyn at Baldwin Wallace; DeSales vs. St. John Fisher
at Bowdoin: Merchant Marine at Bowdoin; Cortland vs. Widener
at Rowan: Keystone at Rowan; Christopher Newport vs. Albright

Initially we tried to build a bracket around Bowdoin but, after looking at the criteria, we realized Messiah is potentially the more deserving host. Unfortunately that potentially creates a flight in the second weekend because Bowdoin couldn't drive to Messiah. If Bowdoin hosts, there's still a flight because Baldwin Wallace can't drive to Maine.  If the Committee wants to avoid flights altogether, then Rowan could find itself hosting two weekends.