We like to say Banana Slugs as much as you do, but we don't know if UC Santa Cruz will get to the table for at-large consideration. Photo by UC Santa Cruz athletics

Our mock selections are a team effort. Scott Peterson, Matt Snyder and Gordon Mann walked through the process on Sunday's Hoopsville Selection Special, with Dave McHugh serving as moderator and guide. Pat Coleman and Ryan Scott handled the bracketing.

Remember that these picks do not influence the NCAA Tournament selection committee's picks, nor does our Top 25 poll. Those are the two most common misconceptions for people who don't like our picks. 

• NCAA Selection Show, 2:30 p.m. ET
• Who's in automatically: 43 conference winners
• NCAA tournament FAQs

We start by projecting the regional rankings for each of the now ten regions in Division III basketball because that's how the process actually starts. The regional advisory committees that have been producing regional rankings do it one more time and then send them to the national tournament selection committee. That committee can adjust the regional committees' selections, which then alters which teams are regionally ranked, which then changes some teams' records against regionally ranked opponents (one of the primary criteria for selecting at-large teams).

Compared to Wednesday’s regional rankings, we made a couple of key adjustments:

• Region 3: We’re taking a big risk right off the bat and moving Liberty League runner-up St. Lawrence into the regional rankings. We think the Saints are not just ranked, but ranked fifth after beating Vassar in the Liberty League semifinals. If this is wrong, well, you’ll see at the end.
• Region 5: We moved Widener (MAC Commonwealth semifinal winner over York) into the regional rankings and bumped Marymount out. Results against Marymount still count because the results versus regionally ranked opponents (vRRO) crtierion covers anyone in the last two rankings.
• Region 6: We added Southern Virginia and Shenandoah, replacing Roanoke and Piedmont. The Knights and Hornets don’t need an at-large bid because they won the USA South and ODAC respectively.
• Region 7: We reordered the top teams with Hope now first, then Trine and then DePauw, which slips to third after losing in the NCAC semifinals. Ohio Wesleyan and Wittenberg enter the rankings, replacing Oberlin and Ohio Northern.
• Region 10: We debated whether UC Santa Cruz, which added a vRRO win over Salisbury and a vRRO loss to Christopher Newport, should jump Redlands which lost to Whittier in the SCIAC semifinals. Here’s a snap shot of how they look:

  Redlands: 0.826 winning percentage, .502 strength-of-schedule (SOS), 2-1 vRRO, 19-4 vs D3

  UC Santa Cruz: 0.692 winning percentage, 0.653 SOS, 4-4 vRRO, 9-4 vs D3 

  There was a consensus on our panel that we would’ve put the Banana Slugs in front of the Bulldogs all along because we favor tougher schedules and UC Santa Cruz had one of the toughest in Division III. But the Selection Committee seems to favor winning percentage and, since the Banana Slugs play in a conference without a regular season and have to fill their schedule with out-of-Division foes, they have a lower winning percentage.

When we get picks wrong, it’s usually right here. Someone we like drops in the regional rankings and never gets to the table for at-large consideration and someone else we didn’t really consider shoots up in the rankings and gets a bid.

Eventually the national committee ends up with a final set of regional rankings, which we'll hopefully get to see again after the projections are released this year. Those rankings include teams that have clinched automatic bids, which are set aside for the bracketing stage. Then the highest ranked team without an AQ within each region comes to the table for consideration as an at-large candidate. There are 10 teams up for consideration at any point, one from each region.

When a team is picked, the next highest ranked team within that region comes to the table. Do that 20 times, add those teams to the 44 automatic bid winners and you have your bracket. The Committee selects the participants and then brackets them. It doesn’t just pick a team because it slots into a bracket better than another with a better resume.

The first couple are easy. You could take them in a different order and it wouldn’t impact the result too much at this point.

Round 1: Amherst, Springfield, Cortland, Stevens, Johns Hopkins, Washington & Lee, DePauw, Millikin, UW-Whitewater, Mary Hardin-Baylor

Amherst leaves the board and Tufts takes its place for Region 1

Round 2: Tufts, Springfield, Cortland, Stevens, Johns Hopkins, Washington & Lee, DePauw, Millikin, UW-Whitewater, Mary Hardin-Baylor

DePauw leaves the board and Trine takes its place for Region 7

Round 3: Tufts, Springfield, Cortland, Stevens, Johns Hopkins, Washington & Lee, Trine, Millikin, UW-Whitewater, Mary Hardin-Baylor

Tufts leaves the board and Trinity (Conn.) takes its place for Region 1

We’re three picks in, and two are from the NESCAC. Sometimes this conference has four or even five teams in the Tournament. Four is certainly possible this year, but Trinity is going sit for a while because of its relatively low winning percentage. It’s also worth noting that the Bantams had games cancelled due to COVID against Johns Hopkins and Babson, which will eventually be considered for at-large bids. Lots of teams lost games to COVID, but they loom large for Trinity.

Round 4: Trinity, Springfield, Cortland, Stevens, Johns Hopkins, Washington & Lee, Trine, Millikin, UW-Whitewater, Mary Hardin-Baylor

UW-Whitewater leaves the board and Wartburg takes its place for Region 9

Round 5: Trinity, Springfield, Cortland, Stevens, Johns Hopkins, Washington & Lee, Trine, Millikin, Wartburg, Mary Hardin-Baylor

Trine leaves the board and John Carroll takes its place for Region 7

Round 6: Trinity, Springfield, Cortland, Stevens, Johns Hopkins, Washington & Lee, John Carroll, Millikin, Wartburg, Mary Hardin-Baylor

John Carroll leaves the board and Marietta takes its place for Region 7

We’re six picks in and five are from Regions 1 and 7. There’s no quota system for distributing at-large bids to regions, though the women’s Selection Committee has been more hesitant to shut out a region entirely for 20 rounds of deliberation than the Men’s Committee has been. But it’s possible to see a run of teams from the same region get bids when their resumes are very similar.

This is the end of the easy selections, though we think the next half dozen or so will be in safely.

Of the 10 teams on the board, Millikin stands out because the Big Blue have nine regionally ranked wins. Note that the criterion is results against regionally ranked opponents, not necessarily wins. In that context, going 1-3 is better than going 1-0. Millikin has 14 games against regionally ranked opponents, which is more than anyone else we consider, and went a very respectable 9-5. This is why you schedule hard, as Olivia Lett did at Millikin. We take the Big Blue here.

Round 7: Trinity, Springfield, Cortland, Stevens, Johns Hopkins, Washington & Lee, Marietta, Millikin, Wartburg, Mary Hardin-Baylor

Millikin leaves the board and Carroll takes its place for Region 8

Now we have three teams with 0.846 winning percentage – Mary Hardin-Baylor, Johns Hopkins, and Springfield. That’s a better winning percentage than anyone else we’ll consider, and it comes with solid SOS and winning records against regionally ranked opponents. So they go next.

Round 8: Trinity, Springfield, Cortland, Stevens, Johns Hopkins, Washington & Lee, Marietta,  Carroll, Wartburg, Mary Hardin-Baylor

Mary Hardin-Baylor leaves the board and East Texas Baptist takes its place in Region 10

Round 9: Trinity, Springfield, Cortland, Stevens, Johns Hopkins, Washington & Lee, Marietta,  Carroll, Wartburg, East Texas Baptist

Johns Hopkins leaves the board and Elizabethtown takes its place in Region 5

Round 10: Trinity, Springfield, Cortland, Stevens, Elizabethtown, Washington & Lee, Marietta,  Carroll, Wartburg, East Texas Baptist

Springfield leaves the board and Babson takes its place in Region 2

Marietta and East Texas Baptist have very similar criteria. If Ohio Wesleyan enters the final Region 7 rankings, then Marietta picks up vRRO win there and we give the Pioneers the edge over East Texas Baptist. If not, then ETBU is the next pick. But those two teams go next.

Round 11: Trinity, Babson, Cortland, Stevens, Elizabethtown, Washington & Lee, Marietta, Carroll, Wartburg, East Texas Baptist

Marietta leaves the board and Ohio Wesleyan takes its place in Region 7

We think this is the end of the night for Region 7. The Battling Bishops have a relatively low SOS and a 3-7 record against regionally ranked teams. At some point, the number of losses weighs a team down as much as the lack of vRROs does. If we’re wrong about Ohio Wesleyan, and this is really Otterbein or Calvin, it doesn’t change the conclusion. Those teams are 3-7 and 2-7 respectively against regionally ranked teams.     

Round 12: Trinity, Babson, Cortland, Stevens, Elizabethtown, Washington & Lee, Ohio Wesleyan,  Carroll, Wartburg, East Texas Baptist

East Texas Baptist leaves the table and Redlands takes its place for Region 10

This is where that decision whether Redlands is ranked in front of UC Santa Cruz looms large. If UC Santa Cruz moves ahead of Redlands (and, again, that’s what we’d do), then it changes a lot of what follows. Redlands comes to the table with an interesting resume. This is the first time we have a team with a win over one of the other teams at the table. Redlands beat Wartburg in Southern California over the holidays.

Redlands also has a .502 SOS (the lowest of anyone we’ll consider) and three games vRRO. That’s not the Bulldogs’ fault. They’re on one of Division III’s islands as the only conference in Southern California. But we think the Committee will have a hard time looking past this when almost every other team has as many wins vRRO as Redlands does games.

From Region 5, Elizabethtown has eight games against regionally ranked teams and a very good 0.563 SOS. We think the Bluejays stay in front of Catholic in the final rankings, despite the Cardinals beating them in the Landmark Conference finals. Etown won two of three over CUA and goes into the Tournament.

Round 13: Trinity, Babson, Cortland, Stevens, Elizabethtown, Washington & Lee, Ohio Wesleyan,  Carroll, Wartburg, Redlands

Elizabethtown leaves the table and Catholic takes its place for Region 5

Amazon says, if you like Elizabethtown, you may also enjoy Catholic. Their numbers are very similar and now they’ve split results against each other. The Cardinals go next.

Round 14: Trinity, Babson, Cortland, Stevens, Catholic, Washington & Lee, Ohio Wesleyan,  Carroll, Wartburg, Redlands

Catholic leaves the table and Salisbury takes its place for Region 5.

This one will raise the eyebrows of the Banana Slugs, if slugs have eyebrows. UC Santa Cruz was seeded higher than Salisbury in the Coast-to-Coast tournament and then beat the Sea Gulls convincingly. Most conferences have all members in the same region so Salisbury couldn’t get to the table before UC Santa Cruz. But the Coast-to-Coast has its teams spread, well, from coast to coast. While UC Santa Cruz sits in Region 10, Salisbury is in Region 5. So the Sea Gulls get a seat before the Banana Slugs do.

Now we have to decide how much we penalize Wartburg for losing to Redlands. We think that loss isn’t enough to cancel out the SOS advantage that the Knights have over the Bulldogs. There’s evidence that’s true elsewhere – Chicago isn’t ranked in front of Millikin in Region 8 despite the head-to-head win. Wartburg goes next and UW-Oshkosh comes to the table with its titanic SOS and doesn’t stay long.

Round 15: Trinity, Babson, Cortland, Stevens, Salisbury, Washington & Lee, Ohio Wesleyan, Carroll, Wartburg, Redlands

Wartburg leaves the table and UW-Oshkosh takes its place for Region 9

Round 16: Trinity, Babson, Cortland, Stevens, Salisbury, Washington & Lee, Ohio Wesleyan,  Carroll, UW-Oshkosh, Redlands

UW-Oshkosh leaves the table and Bethany Lutheran takes its place for Region 9

We’re getting close to the end of the process and we think this is the end for Region 9. It’s possible that Loras takes this seat instead of Bethany Lutheran. Both lost in their conference semifinals, though Loras’ loss to Wartburg is much better than Bethany Lutheran’s loss to Minnesota-Morris. It won’t matter because Bethany Lutheran’s winning percentage is relatively low and Loras has the same 3-7 vRRO record that sinks Ohio Wesleyan.

At this point in the process, Washington & Lee, Cortland, and Stevens are probably frantically waiving their arms, checking their breath to make sure its not offensive and wondering how much longer they’ll have to wait. They’ve been at the table since the beginning and we haven’t even mentioned them yet. Again, there is no geographic quota for how many at-large bids go to each region.

We think W&L is stuck. The Generals have a relatively low SOS without a strong winning percentage, like some of the teams we’ll talk about. The 3-4 vRRO result isn’t terrible, but there isn’t enough in their numerical resume to elevate them above other candidates. And if Region 9 sends Loras instead of Bethany Lutheran, then the Generals are facing one team that’s beaten them head-to-head. We could be wrong and have been wrong before, especially with ODAC teams. But we think Region 6 gets shut out.

As for Stevens, the Ducks have a win over Scranton, which is the top team in Region 5. But their winning percentage is even lower than W&L’s. We think Region 5 gets shut out, too.

Meanwhile Cortland has a good SOS and a good winning percentage. And while Cortland only has two wins against regionally ranked opponents, one is against Ithaca which sits atop Region 3. Stevens beat Scranton which sits atop Region 5, but Ithaca beat Scranton. This is starting to sound like one of those conspiracy theory maps with strings connecting photos on a cork board.

Round 17: Trinity, Babson, Cortland, Stevens, Salisbury, Washington & Lee, Ohio Wesleyan,  Carroll, Bethany Lutheran, Redlands

Cortland leaves the table and is replaced by St. Lawrence for Region 3

Again, we’re taking a leap of faith that St. Lawrence is this high in the rankings after not being in them at all on Wednesday. This could also be Rochester which would have the lowest winning percentage of any team we consider. If that’s the case, then Region 3’s night is probably over.

We’re down to our final three picks and we’re really splitting hairs (and feathers for Stevens, Trinity and Salisbury).

Do you like winning percentage? Then take Redlands or St. Lawrence.

Do you like SOS? Then take Babson. And that’s what we did.

Trinity does have a small advantage on the Beavers in terms of results against common opponents. The Bantams beat Williams and Tufts and Babson didn’t. Then again, Babson beat WPI and Trinity didn’t. So it’s not a huge advantage. And Babson looks slightly better in the other categories.

Round 18: Trinity, Babson, St. Lawrence, Stevens, Salisbury, Washington & Lee, Ohio Wesleyan,  Carroll, Bethany Lutheran, Redlands

Babson leaves the table and is replaced by WPI for Region 2.

If Trinity was starting to feel foul, this move hurts the Bantams even more. WPI has a head-to-head win over them. Maybe our Redlands-Wartburg theory applies here, too, and the Bantams’ SOS wins out?

We’re down to our last two spots and looked at Trinity, St. Lawrence, Salisbury and Carroll. Trinity has the advantage in SOS but not in winning percentage or vRRO. Carroll has good results versus regionally ranked opponents (6-5) but not SOS. Salisbury beats both of those on two criteria.

Round 19: Trinity, WPI, St. Lawrence, Stevens, Salisbury, Washington & Lee, Ohio Wesleyan,  Carroll, Bethany Lutheran, Redlands

Salisbury leaves the table and is replaced by Widener for Region 5

The last pick is always tough and no team in our last five or six picks should feel too safe, if they are even reading this.

We have two teams with high SOS (Trinity, Carroll) and two with high winning percentages (St. Lawrence, Redlands). Regardless of what we would do, we think the Committee favors winning percentage. So we set aside Trinity and Carroll.

We just can’t get around Redlands 2-1 vRRO. But St. Lawrence doesn’t have that problem. They were 2-4. We think six vRRO games trumps three and take St. Lawrence for our last spot.

Round 20: Trinity, WPI, St. Lawrence, Stevens, Salisbury, Washington & Lee, Ohio Wesleyan, Carroll, Bethany Lutheran, Redlands

We wouldn’t be surprised if Trinity went here or earlier, or Carroll, or Redlands. Or, heck, even UC Santa Cruz!

Assuming these are the Committee's 20 at-large picks (and they won’t be), here’s how we set up our bracket.

Bracket 1

at New Jersey City: Immaculata at Christopher Newport; Springfield vs. New Jersey City (hosts)
at DePauw: Washington & Jefferson at DePauw; UW-Eau Claire vs. Wartburg
at Amherst: Brooklyn at Amherst; DeSales vs. SUNY New Paltz
at Ithaca: Framingham State at Ithaca; Messiah vs. Roger Williams

Because the men have priority the first weekend this year, Christopher Newport starts on the road. New Jersey City hosts but CNU still gets a lower seed. Yes, this has happened before. No, the team who lost hosting rights did not get eliminated in the first round because they were on the road. The Captains would have two other teams sitting atop their region in this bracket, Amherst (Region 1) and Ithaca (Region 3).

Bracket 2

at Simpson: Webster at Simpson; Wisconsin Lutheran vs. Gustavus Adolphus
at Whitman: Whittier at Whitman; East Texas Baptist vs. Wittenberg
at Trine: Morrisville State at Trine; Baldwin Wallace vs. Cortland
at UW-Whitewater: North Central (Minn.) vs. UW-Whitewater; John Carroll vs. Illinois Wesleyan

The Committee has sent strong signals that undefeated Webster's seed is going to be low by not putting the Gorlocks in the regional rankings. We expect they'll get a low seed's draw in the first round. We have to split up the three ASC teams somehow, and decide to send East Texas Baptist to Whitman. And throw in Wittenberg because it'll be fun to hear announcers keep Whitman, Whittier and Wittenberg straight.

Simpson is our top seed in this bracket and we assume they'd host the second weekend, should the Storm advance.

Bracket 3

at Transylvania: Ripon at Transylvania; Millikin vs. Shenandoah
at Mary Hardin-Baylor: Trinity (Texas) at Mary Hardin-Baylor; Hardin-Simmons vs. Rhodes
at Hope: La Roche at Hope; St. John Fisher vs. UW-Oshkosh
at Smith: SUNYIT at Smith; Emmanuel vs. Bates

Transylvania is the top seed here and centrally located, which would make them a good second weekend option if the Pioneers advance. We're not aware of anything that would prevent Smith from hosting so those Pioneers get a home game, too.We wanted to avoid a replay of the season opening weekend where Mary Hardin-Baylor hosted Trinity, Rhodes and East Texas Baptist. We sent ETBU to California and brought in Hardin-Simmons instead, assuming the Mary Hardin-Baylor men will not host. 

Bracket 4

at NYU: Mitchell at NYU; Elizabethtown vs. Salisbury
at Gettysburg: Southern Virginia at Gettysburg; Catholic vs. Babson
at Scranton: Clarks Summit vs. Scranton; Marietta vs. Rhode Island College
at Tufts: Mount St. Mary vs. Tufts; Johns Hopkins vs. St. Lawrence

New York University is the top seed in this bracket and would host during the second weekend, assuming the Violets win two games and assumming it's not a problem to do so at Division I St. Francis where the Violets have played all season. Clarks Summit gets the shortest road trip in the tournament and Scranton's central location allows us to get Marietta east and Rhode Island College west for that pod.