Hope and Trine wouldn't see each other again until the national championship game in Dallas. Do we think the Flying Dutch and Thunder will play a fourth time this season? Hope athletics photo

By Gordon Mann
D3hoops.com

When a head coach wins their second national championship, they’re often asked how the titles compare to each other.

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And their answer often goes something like this:

“Oh, that’s a tough question. Every title is special because it’s so hard to win one. They’re like children and I can’t pick a favorite.”

Is that true?

Setting aside extenuating circumstances, like having your actual child play on the team, I assume the first title is the sweetest. There’s unique euphoria that comes from achieving something that you’re weren’t sure would ever happen, a sweetness that glistens around the phrase “national champion” the first time a team calls itself that.  Sure, subsequent national championships are also special, but aren't those celebrations at least a little tinged with relief from getting to back to the mountain top?

This year’s bracket is built around three teams that have never won a NCAA Division III women’s basketball championship – Smith, Transylvania, and Christopher Newport – and a fourth in Scranton that won one 38 years ago. If championships really are like children, the Lady Royals’ 1985 title is old enough to send its own kids to college.

Other programs, like New York University and Trinity (Texas), won titles more than two decades ago. If the Violets or Tigers hoist the Walnut-and-Bronze at the end of this Tournament, it will be a brand-new experience for their coaches and players.

Not every contender is looking for their first title. The defending national champions are still very much alive. Hope hasn’t lost a game to someone outside its conference since Thomas More (now a Division II program) beat the Flying Dutch in December 2018. And Millikin head coach Olivia Lett is trying to become the first person in Division III women’s basketball to win a national championship as a player (Illinois Wesleyan in 2012) and a head coach.

But this Tournament field has a lot of teams that are strong candidates to win their first national championship, or their first in a long time. Over the next three weeks, we’ll play our way from 64 teams to 16 and then to four that will head to Hartford for the national semifinals hosted by Trinity College. The two semifinal winners will then play the national championship 14 days later in Dallas, where the Division I championship game will also be held.

As is tradition for these previews, I’ll look at each quadrant and pick the best first-round matchup; a surprise team that could win both games on the road this weekend; a disappointment that may not live up to its seeding or ranking this weekend; and the quadrant winner. I’ll also throw in the team with the best chance to win its first Division III women’s basketball title.

As usual, the only guarantee for these picks is that some will be very wrong. 

Smith Quadrant (Upper Left)

Katelyn Pickunka and Smith have bounced back in a big way since last season's gut-wrenching loss to UW-Whitewater in the Sweet 16. Photo by Smith College athletics

No. 2 Smith (26-1) vs. Morrisville State (20-7); St. John Fisher (25-2) vs. Marymount (23-4)
Mitchell (18-9) at No. 8 DeSales (26-1); Mary Washington (22-6) vs. Roger Williams (25-3)
Notre Dame (Md.) (23-4) at No. 20 Trinity (Conn.) (22-5); Cortland (23-4) vs. St. Vincent (22-4)
Webster (24-3) at No. 17 UW-Whitewater (21-6); No. 9 Gustavus Adolphus (25-2) vs. Ohio Wesleyan (18-10)

Best first round matchup: St. John Fisher was ranked No. 17 in our preseason poll and then dropped out of the rankings after losing two of its first five games. The Cardinals have not lost a game since and plowed through the Empire 8 schedule, winning every game by double digits. Marymount has four losses, but two were against No. 1 Christopher Newport and ODAC champion Washington and Lee. The marquee matchup is Empire 8 Defensive Player of the Year Claire Kruska trying to lock down Atlantic East MVP Chandler Eddleton. Whoever wins this first round game should give Smith a good game in the second round.

Most likely to surprise: The national rankings suggest No. 10 Gustavus Adolphus should win this weekend’s pod at Whitewater, and the Gusties have the best chance of any team in this quadrant to win two games on the road this weekend. If Gustavus Adolphus can get past Ohio Wesleyan first, the Gusties would likely see WIAC champion and 2022 Final Four participant UW-Whitewater on Saturday night. MIAC teams are hard to gauge because they play most of their schedule against each other. But the Gusties opened the season with a 19-point win at UW-Stout, which finished second in Whitewater’s conference. The last time a current member of the MIAC made the Sweet 16 was 2018, when Gustavus Adolphus beat UW-Whitewater.

Most likely to disappoint: If Trinity beats Notre Dame (Md.) on Friday night, this will be the best season in the program’s history. The Bantams made their Top 25 debut earlier this season and they can set a new program single-season record for victories with a win over the Gators. That win would also be just the second ever in program history. But the Bantams have also lost four of their last seven games and at times have looked very reliant on center Reilly Campbell to carry the offensive load. Trinity needs to regain its offensive balance to get through this weekend and will need to get special performances from someone other than Campbell to play in the national semifinals that the College is hosting. It's not impossible – Trinity lost to Smith in overtime back in November.

And the winner is: Smith’s loss to UW-Whitewater in the 2022 NCAA Tournament was one of the most gut-wrenching defeats I can remember in Division III women’s basketball. You can read what happened here and, if you’re a UW-Whitewater fan, you’ll remember the game fondly. To the credit of Smith’s coaching staff and players, that bitter end did not break their spirits. The Pioneers look even better this year, with Morgan Morrison racking up double-doubles, Dashelle Gleissner running the offense, and All-American Katelyn Pickunka doing whatever the team needs. I predict Smith's Tournament run will go at least two rounds farther than last year's.

Best chance to win first national title: That’s also Smith. It would be a short drive from Northampton, Mass to Hartford, Connecticut and then a much longer trip to Dallas.

Transylvania Quadrant (Lower Left)

Belle Pellecchia and NYU have had plenty of reason to be fired up this season. Photo by NYU athletics

Editor's note: We're not certain if Transylvania or New York University is the top seed in this bracket. Since NYU cannot host Tournament games due to facility issues, we're treating Transylvania as the top seed.

Rhodes (17-11) at No. 2 Transylvania (27-0); No. 18 Millikin (23-4) vs. Emory (17-7)
No. 25 Berea (26-2) at No. 16 Ohio Northern (23-4); UW-Oshkosh (19-8) vs. Washington & Lee (22-6)
Knox (22-5) at No. 15 Loras (23-4); No. 14 Trine (21-6) vs. Washington U. (17-8)
No. 6 New York University (22-2) vs. Greensboro (26-2); Bridgewater State (21-6) at No. 11 Messiah (25-2)

Best first round matchup:  There are a lot of great matchups in this one, including the rare first round game between Top 25 teams. My favorite has 2022 national semifinalist Trine playing UAA runner-up WashU on a neutral court. The Thunder lost low-post presence Sam Underhill to injury midway through the season. About the same time, they inserted Sidney Wagner into the starting lineup at guard and she won MIAA player of the year. It seems like WashU has already had a couple seasons this season. The Bears won their first four, then lost four of six, then won 10 of 11, and then lost three of four. They're battle tested and senior forward Maya Arnott averages close to a double-double.

Most likely to surprise: Road teams could win all four pods in this quadrant this weekend! NYU couldn’t host because of facility issues, but the Violets are the favorite in their pod. Trine is the highest ranked team in its pod, so the Thunder beating Loras would not be a huge upset. I’m picking the young UW-Oshkosh team to win two close games at Ohio Northern this weekend. The Titans took their lumps early in the conference season when they started WIAC play 1-4. But UW-Oshkosh founds its footing and is always really tough in the Tournament. Keep an eye on junior forward Kayce Vaile who leads the WIAC in rebounds with 8.1 per game.

Most likely to disappoint: I wouldn’t blame Coach Juli Fulks’ team at Transylvania if they were playing with a chip on their shoulders. The Pioneers were ranked No. 2 in the country when NYU was No. 1, and they were eventually jumped by Trinity (Texas) for the top spot when NYU lost. Then, when Trinity lost, Transy was jumped again by Christopher Newport for the No. 1 ranking. The Pioneers are a great team, but they did not play many NCAA Tournament caliber opponents this season. This isn’t just my opinion. Entering the Tournament, their strength-of-schedule was 115^th in the country, compared to 6th for NYU, 34th for Ohio Northern, 43rd for Loras, 72nd for Trine, etc. I don’t think the Pioneers will lose this weekend (see below) but they are the least tested of the home favorites in this quadrant.

And the winner is: At one point this season, New York University versus Transylvania would’ve been No. 1 versus No. 2. It’ll still be a great game if they meet in the Elite 8 and a great environment at the Beck Center where the community rallies around the Pioneers. I’ll take NYU in a close game because I like the Violets’ combination of Natalie Bruns and Jenny Walker in the post and Belle Pellecchia at guard.

Best chance to win their first national title: If Transylvania gets through this bracket, there should be no further questions its strength-of-schedule. A 31-0 Pioneers squad headed to the Final Four would be a solid pick to win the national championship.

Christopher Newport quadrant (Upper right)

Left-to-right: Ella McKinney, Kate Majerus, Savannah Feenstra and Claire Baguely  Hope College athletics file photo by Steven M. Herppich

Brooklyn (19-7) at No. 1 Christopher Newport (26-0); Stevens (22-5) vs. Elizabethtown (22-4)
St. Norbert (24-3) at No. 7 Hope (25-2); No. 22 Baldwin Wallace (22-5) vs. Wartburg (21-6)
Texas-Dallas (19-9) at No. 5 Trinity (Texas) (26-1); No. 12 Hardin-Simmons (23-3) vs. Redlands (19-7)
Merchant Marine (24-2) at No. 21 Tufts (21-6); Skidmore (22-5) vs. Johns Hopkins (21-6)

Best first round matchup: Neither Stevens nor Elizabethtown were at their best last weekend when they lost their conference championship games by double digits to No. 8 DeSales and No. 3 Scranton respectively. Friday night’s first round matchup gives the Ducks and the Blue Jays a chance to show their strengths. For Stevens, that means great defense and a unique talent in MAC Freedom Player of the Year Jess Broad who can control a game without scoring. For Etown, that means an ultra-efficient ed by DaniRae Renno (56.3 field goal percentage) and Summer McNulty (49.7 field goal percentage).

Most likely to surprise: The most likely team to win two games on the road this weekend is the one that has already played its likely Saturday opponent twice before. No. 12 Hardin-Simmons lost both games in its home-and-home matchup with No. 5 Trinity during the regular season, and it’s disappointing that the Cowgirls and Tigers will meet again so soon in the Tournament. If you like the sports cliché that it’s tough to beat a really good team three times, then the third time could be the charm for HSU.

Most likely to disappoint: It’ll be a bummer for whichever team loses the assumed Trinity/Hardin-Simmons three-match on Saturday night since their NCAA Tournament run will end without them leaving Texas. But I understand the financial realities that drive these matchups. And I think all four home teams win their pods this weekend.

And the winner is: Christopher Newport, Hope, Trinity/Hardin-Simmons, and Tufts would be an outstanding Final Four, and CNU versus Hope would be a thrilling national title game. To have that matchup in the Sweet 16 is either a great treat or unfortunate bracketing, depending on your perspective. I’ve played the CNU/Hope game in my own head a bunch of times. Would the Captains Chaos work against Hope’s length and depth? Does MIAA defensive player of the year Meg Morehouse shut down All-American Sondra Fan? Who wins the low post matchup between CNU’s Anaya Simmons and Hope’s Savannah Feenstra? Until I see someone outside the MIAA beat Hope, I can’t pick against the Flying Dutch.

Best chance to win their first national title: Christopher Newport was undefeated and ranked No. 1 when it entered the NCAA Tournament last year. I think the Captains – who are again undefeated and ranked No. 1 -- are deeper and better this year. Considering how tough this bracket is, they’ll get a chance to prove that over the next 10 days.

Scranton Quadrant (Lower right)

Kaci Kranson and Scranton have been unstoppable so far this season. Photo by University of Scranton athletics

St. Joseph’s (Maine) (23-6) at No. 3 Scranton (27-0); Rhode Island College (24-3) vs. Rowan (20-8)
Northwestern (Minn.) (19-8) vs. No. 10 Chicago (21-4); Whitman (21-5) vs. UW-Eau Claire (20-8)
La Roche (20-7) at No. 19 Ithaca (23-4); Marietta (20-7) vs. Eastern Connecticut (22-5)
Maine Maritime (22-6) at No. 13 Babson (23-5); SUNY New Paltz (23-4) vs. Gettysburg (21-6)

Best first round matchup: UW-Eau Claire was in the Top 25 much of the season and then the Blugolds slipped out of the rankings when they lost four of six games. Whitman started the season ranked and then dropped off the radar when the Blues lost two of their first three NWC games. I think both teams are underrated. UW-Eau Claire has one of the best guards in the country in Jessie Ruden and Whitman has the NWC Player of the Year in forward Korin Baker. This should be a great game, plus it’ll be fun to hear the announcers distinguish between Blues and Blugolds for 90-minute broadcast.

Most likely to surprise:  The first-round matchup between SUNY New Paltz and Gettysburg is a tossup but, if the Hawks can crack the Bullets’ stingy defense, I give them a puncher’s chance against No. 13 Babson in the second round because they have Brianna Fitzgerald. The SUNYAC Player of the Year leads the Hawks in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks.

Most likely to disappoint: Ithaca finished the season losing two of its last three games, including the Liberty League title game at home to Skidmore. The Bombers lost a heartbreaker at home to Springfield in the second round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, so there’s recent precedent for this pick. Marietta has shown it can beat Top 25 teams, including a road win at No. 22 Baldwin Wallace in January. If the Pioneers can get past Eastern Connecticut on Friday, Ithaca will have its hands full on Saturday. 

And the winner is: Scranton has great balance with All-American guard Bridget Monaghan, fab freshman Kaci Kranson and shooting guard Sam Rajza. Losing junior forward Maddy Ryan to injury is a big blow to the Lady Royals’ front court, and that’s a problem against the size of whomever comes out of the University of Chicago pod. But maybe it provides something of an emotional rallying point. If the second weekend is played at Scranton, I like the Lady Royals over Babson in the Round of Eight.

Best chance to win their first national title: Chicago has beaten a lot of Tournament teams already – UW-Whitewater, Knox, New York University, WashU, Emory. The Maroons could definitely beat four more Tournament teams and make the Final Four trip to Hartford.

National semifinals

Assuming my picks are right (and that’s unlikely), it would be Smith versus New York University in one semifinal and Hope versus Scranton in the other. Both games would be coinflips. All four teams are well balanced, play good defense, and top players capable of carrying their team in a big moment. Smith played at Final Four host Trinity earlier this season, so maybe that gives the Pioneers a slight advantage.

I lean NYU over Smith because the UAA schedule prepares teams a little more for deep NCAA Tournament runs than the NEWMAC does, and I’d lean Hope over Scranton because the Flying Dutch are a little more dangerous from three.

Earlier in the column, I suggested the first national title is the sweetest for a program except where there are extenuating circumstances, like a coach having his or her child on the team. I had something specific in mind. If Hope head coach Brian Morehouse wins a third national championship in April, it will be with his daughter Meg in the starting lineup in her senior season. Would that make this the sweetest title of the three? We’ll have to ask him.

2023 Division III championship final: Hope 75, New York University 67