2024 National Player of the Year Natalie Bruns and her NYU teammates are looking for more hardware this March. Photo by Bella Dunning, NYU athletics

By Gordon Mann
D3hoops.com

There are two ways that we can compliment a team through our regular season coverage at D3hoops.com.

The first way is to mention them repeatedly in our biweekly recaps, put them on Hoopsville, feature their players in Around the Nation, and chart their climb up the Top 25 rankings.

If you look in the “News Releases” section of a team page and see that we’ve decided to highlight that team, among the hundreds that play basketball at this level, more than once in our game night recaps during the season, that’s an indication we think that team is special.

• Women's tournament bracket
• NCAA Tournament history
• Previous previews: 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011

The other way that we can compliment a team is to say almost nothing about them.

Some teams are so dominant that we don’t know what to say about them.

We can’t chart their climb up the Top 25 because they start at No. 1 and don’t move. They beat teams – good teams! – so convincingly that we’ve run out of diplomatic synonyms for “dominate,” and saying they did that again feels like reporing that grass is still green. They aren’t off the radar but somehow overshadow the entire dashboard.

This year’s New York University team has reached that level.

Last year, we mused that NYU’s title felt inevitable and pondered whether head coach Meg Barber had assembled the most talented starting lineup in Division III women’s basketball history, as the Ultra Violets rolled to a national championship.

Maybe we should’ve held back some of that coverage, so that we could use it this year because the 2024-25 Violets are somehow even more impressive.

NYU brought back Player of the Year Natalie Bruns, All-American Belle Pelleccchia and super swing Caroline Peper; added Division I transfer Jamie Behar; and watched reserves Mary Kate Fahey and Brooke Batchelor mature because that’s what happens with good players working under great coaches.

And now this year’s NYU team seems – I don’t know – what’s the next step beyond inevitable?

The magic of March Madness is that it ultimately doesn’t matter how heavily favored a team is or how many times they would beat another in a theoretical seven- or 10-game series. You only need to beat someone once to advance, and there are plenty of teams that can make a case to do so.

No. 2 Bowdoin enters the NCAA Tournament undefeated for the second time in program history. No. 3 Scranton and No. 4 Illinois Wesleyan looked good enough during stretches this season to give Top 25 voters pause before putting NYU at the top of their ballot, week after week. No. 6 Whitman hasn’t lost to a Division III opponent yet this year. No. 7 Baldwin Wallace has won 26 games in a row.

Can these teams or any other stop NYU’s run to another national championship?

Even if they can’t, that’s not the only story worth telling. There are other great teams and great players to enjoy – along with NYU – over the next three weekends, and hopefully this preview helps you do that.

As is tradition for our Tournament previews, I’ll look at each quadrant in the bracket and pick the best first-round matchup; a surprise team that could win both games on the road this weekend; a disappointment that may not live up to its seeding or ranking this weekend; and the quadrant winner.

As usual, the only guarantee for these picks is that some will be very wrong. That’s part of the fun.

Bowdoin quadrant (Upper Left)

Bowdoin has already enjoyed one trophy celebration this season. Can they add another? Photo by Brian Beard

No. 16 Brooklyn (17-11) at No. 1 Bowdoin (27-0); No. 6 Cortland (24-3) vs. No. 10 Endicott (22-5)
No. 15 SUNY-Cobleskill (24-4) at No. 2 Smith (26-2); No. 8 Amherst (19-7) vs. No. 12 Vassar (21-6)
No. 7 Texas Lutheran (23-4) at No. 4 East Texas Baptist (23-4); No. 9 McMurry (21-5) vs. No. 13 Cal Lutheran (22-6)
No. 11 Wisconsin Lutheran (21-7) at No. 2 Gustavus Adolphus (26-1); No. 5 Wartburg (25-2) vs. No. 11 UW-Stevens Point (18-8)

Best first round matchup: Usually we focus on neutral court games because the host teams are clear favorites over their first-round opponents. But the matchup between SCAC champion Texas Lutheran and ASC champion East Texas Baptist looks like a toss-up to me. East Texas Baptist has the advantage in terms of national rankings and Tournament seedings, and the Tigers have one of the stingiest defenses in the country, holding opponents to 31 percent shooting. But Texas Lutheran won the SCAC over fellow Tournament participants Colorado College and McMurry, plus perennial SCAC title contender Trinity (Texas), and the Bulldogs take care of the ball, with point guard Lauren Sansano boasting a 1.5 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Most likely to surprise: Let's go with McMurry which has very quietly put together its best season since Tarra Richardson patrolled the paint in Abilene two decades ago. Head coach Drew Long has done a great job building the War Hawks from a team that won three games his first season, to 12 in his second, then 16, and now 21. Plus, McMurry is 3-0 vs. ETBU and Texas Lutheran this season.

Most likely to disappoint: Back in November, Ryan Scott outlined how this season represented a second chance for Gustavus Adolphus to write happier ending to their story. Last season, the Gusties entered the NCAA Tournament ranked No. 5 and lost a double-overtime heartbreaker in the first round to Trine. There are some eerie similarities between that Gusties squad and this one, which has almost exactly the same ranking and the same record. If Wartburg gets past UW-Stevens Point (which is not given), the Knights will pose a big challenge in the second round, especially if they get hot from three early.

And the winner is: If this bracket was released last week, I would’ve picked Smith to win this bracket because Lynn Hersey is a master at maximizing her talent this time of year, and the Pioneers are talented again. But Sydney Jones’ performance in the NESCAC title game on Sunday – where she scored 15 fourth-quarter points to rally the Polar Bears past rival Colby – causes me to lean toward Bowdoin. I’ll take Bowdoin over Smith in a last-minute victory in the Sweet 16 and then take the Polar Bears again over Gustavus in the Elite 8.

Baldwin Wallace Quadrant (Lower Left)

Lauren Huber leads Illinois Wesleyan in scoring and rebounds per game this season. Photo by Kodiak Creative

No. 15 La Roche (22-5) at No. 1 Baldwin Wallace (26-1); No. 8 Washington and Lee (24-4) vs. No. 9 Merchant Marine  (24-2)
No. 13 Immaculata (22-3) at No. 4 Ohio Wesleyan (23-3); No. 7 Messiah (25-2) vs. No. 10 Washington and Jefferson (23-4)
No. 16 Centre (21-7) at No. 2 Illinois Wesleyan (26-1); No. 6 Trine (24-3) vs. No. 11 Transylvania (22-5)
No. 14 Calvin (18-10) at No. 3 UW-Oshkosh (23-4); No. 5 Bethel (22-5) vs. No. 12 DePauw (20-6)

Best first round matchup: Steelers vs. Eagles. Sheetz vs. Wawa. Yinz vs. Youse. Messiah vs. Washington and Jefferson. These two programs set the standard for Division III women’s basketball in Pennsylvania, one from the western side of the Commonwealth and one from the “east” (Messiah is maybe more Central PA, but work with me here). W&J persevered through back-to-back heartbreaks in the prior two PAC tournaments before beating Chatham in this year's title game, while Messiah is all-but-inevitable in the MAC Commonwealth. The Presidents have a half dozen players shooting over 30 percent from three, led by Bryn Bezjak, and the Falcons have do-it-all guard Reese Harden. The Falcons and Presidents have only played each other twice, and not since 2005, but this should be worth the wait.

Most likely to surprise: Last season, Washington and Lee center/guard/forward Mary Schleusner had one of the greatest NCAA Tournaments ever. She set a new Tournament record with 104 points in just four games and also broke the Tournament record for rebounds in a single game twice, first by grabbing 29 vs. Vassar and then grabbing 33 against Rhode Island College two games later. She was the  Division III equivalent of Tecmo Bo Jackson. The Generals could surprise host Baldwin Wallace and win two games in suburban Cleveland. But it’s even more likely that Schleusner will do something this weekend that makes us say “Whaaa?”

Most likely to disappoint: No one – I like all four hosts advance to the second weekend. But, if I had to pick someone, it’s Illinois Wesleyan because Trine is the scariest road team in this quadrant this weekend. When the Thunder are playing well, they look like a well-oiled machine on offense while making their opponents look like they’re running through road tar on defense. Sidney Wagner, who was the MIAA Offensive Player and Defensive Player of the Year, is the best Trine player since Tara Bieneiewicz led the Thunder to the 2022 national semifinals. 

And the winner is: It’s a Team Titan toss-up between UW-Oshkosh and Illinois Wesleyan. Both got off to terrific starts and then cooled off a little down the stretch, with Illinois Wesleyan playing some close games down the stretch in the CCIW and UW-Oshkosh losing three of its last five games in the WIAC. Oshkosh is more battle tested because the WIAC was even tougher than usual, and Illinois Wesleyan has more individual players capable of erupting for 20-plus points -- Lauren Huber, Mallory Powers, Ava Bardic -- and carrying their team to victory. For that second reason, I’ll take Illinois Wesleyan to advance.

New York University quadrant (Upper right)

Sharp-shooting swing guard Caroline Peper was named first-team all-conference this week. Photo by New York University athletics

No. 16 Gallaudet (18-10) at No. 1 New York University (25-0) No. 8 Mass-Dartmouth (23-4) vs. No. 9 Trinity (Conn.) (18-8)
No. 13 SUNY Geneseo (22-6) at No. 4 Catholic (24-4); No. 5 Christopher Newport (26-1) vs. No. 12 Montclair State (23-4)
No. 15 Piedmont (20-7) at No. 3 Randolph-Macon (27-1); No. 6 Elizabethtown (22-4) vs. No. 11 Brockport (24-4)
No. 14 Stevens (19-8) at No. 2 Gettysburg (25-2); No. 7 Western New England (24-3) vs. No. 10 Tufts (15-10)

Best first round matchup: In prior years, Tufts would be heavily favored over Western New England. NESCAC teams have a .750 winning percentage in the last 10 NCAA Tournaments (82-29) while members of the conference previously known as the CCC have a history of losing to those NESCAC teams (0-4 since 2014). Western New England lost to Bowdoin last year and Tufts way back in 2019. But the landscape has changed a lot since then. Western New England has garnered more Top 25 votes this season than Tufts has. The Golden Bears are one of the best rebounding teams in the country (+12.3 rebounding margin, 5th best nationally) and Tufts has had some problems rebounding this year (22.8 defensive rebounds per game, 403rd nationally). So, keep an eye on WNEU forward Lilly Hedge, who leads the Golden Bears in scoring and rebounding.

Most likely to surprise: Christopher Newport is the most likely road team to advance through the first weekend but CNU has the highest national ranking (No. 9) of the teams in that pod, so that doesn’t qualify as a surprise. The national rankings indicate it would be a surprise if Elizabethtown won two games in Ashland, Virginia this weekend. It’s been a long time since a Landmark Conference team other than Scranton reached the second weekend of the Tournament, but this year’s Etown team feels different. Summer McNulty and DanniRae Renno are three-time first-team all-conference honorees and Jess King is an excellent rebounder. The Bluejays showed how high their ceiling is when they upset Scranton. They can take two this weekend and face NYU the next.

Most likely to disappoint: According to my prior prognostication, Catholic is the most likely home team to lose this weekend but Catholic would not underachieve or disappoint, if it lost to CNU. The only team that fits the spirit of this category is Gettysburg. The Bullets started off really strong, blowing out quality teams by large margins.  Then, Gettysburg lost two-time All-Region guard Mackenzie Szlosek to season ending injury and the Bullets started to look like prior years’ versions, which is still really good! But it’s a version that’s capable of losing games they should win and does not generally score more than 60 points against top-level competition. You don’t have to win big for it to count. But a low-scoring, defense-first team is vulnerable to going cold at the wrong time against the wrong team, and then going home earlier than they should.

And the winner is…: New York University, and probably by large margins in every game. That’s a reflection on NYU’s excellence, not a knock on the rest of the teams in this very nicely balanced bracket.

University of Scranton Quadrant (Lower right)

Kaci Kranson and the Lady Royals will look to advance at least one step farther than last year's Elite 8 appearance. Photo by University of Scranton athletics

No. 14 Mount St. Mary (17-10) at No. 1 Scranton (26-1); No. 8 Southern Virginia (26-2) vs. No. 9 Bates (16-9)
No. 13 St. Joseph (Conn.) (19-9) at No. 4 Johns Hopkins (22-4); No. 5 Carnegie Mellon (20-5) vs. No. 10 Bridgewater State (19-6)
No. 11 Ripon (23-4) at No. 6 UW-Stout (19-7); No. 15 UW-Superior (17-10) at No. 2 Whitman (26-1)
No. 16 Principia (17-11) at No. 3 UW-Whitewater (22-6); No. 7 Colorado College (23-3) vs. No. 12 UW-La Crosse (16-11)

Best first round matchup:  The matchup between Colorado College and UW-La Crosse has a couple of interesting story lines. It’s a test of the new system that awarded four at-large bids to the WIAC, including one to a La Crosse team that had a relatively low winning percentage compared to prior year’s Tournament participants. It’s a test of how far the Colorado College program has come since the Tigers are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance in 35 years. And it will pit Colorado College All-American-in-waiting Zoe Tomlinson – who has an array of low post moves – against La Crosse forward Ali Sprangers who leads the Eagles in three-pointers.

Most likely to surprise: Is it cheating if I pick UW-La Crosse twice? It would be genuinely surprising if a team that went 16-11 and 7-7 in its own conference was one of the last 16 teams standing. But La Crosse has a talented lineup anchored by senior guard Lauryn Milne who has played well against tough opponents all season. And the WIAC teams are so tightly packed together that we'll invoke the cliché that it’s very hard to beat the same team three times in the same season, and that's potentially what WIAC conference mate UW-Whitewater would have to do on Saturday night.

Most likely to disappoint: Two conferences have five teams in the Tournament, including their automatic qualifier. If a conference accounts for almost 20 percent of the 21 at-large bids, it’s reasonable to expect that conference to have multiple teams make the Sweet 16, and I expect the WIAC to do so. The NESCAC also has five Tournament representatives, and I think only one makes it out of the first weekend (Bowdoin). It’s possible only two make it out of the first night. It would not be disappointing or even surprising for Trinity, Amherst, Bates or Tufts to lose this weekend. They’re all lower seeds. But, for a conference that used to put multiple teams in the Final Four, a losing record in the first weekend would be a bummer.

And the winner is…: For much of this season, the University of Scranton looked like the second juggernaut in Division III women’s basketball. The Lady Royals did not just beat very good teams but obliterate them, routinely winning by big margins and often putting the game out of reach at the half. Head coach Ben O’Brien has built a deep, talented, balanced roster with one current All-American (Kaci Kranson) and another rising star who doesn’t even start yet (Elizabeth Bennett). Scranton won’t roll through this bracket like it did the regular season, but the Lady Royals will reach the Final Four.

National semifinals

If the bracket follows my projections (and it won’t), we would have Bowdoin against Illinois Wesleyan in one semifinal and then New York University against Scranton in the second.

Bowdoin is the safer pick to advance because, as noted above, Illinois Wesleyan could trip over Trine and get eliminated this weekend. But what fun is picking safe, when I’m likely to be wrong anyway? I’ll take IWU’s offensive firepower to carry the Titans past the Polar Bears and into the national title game.

On the other side of the bracket, we’d have a rematch of last year’s Elite 8 game which NYU won in Manhattan over Scranton. The Lady Royals are excellent and possibly the No. 1 team entering the 2025-26 season.

But this season, I don’t think anyone can stop NYU, and that includes the title game.

Maybe we should’ve said more about this NYU team throughout the regular season, to recognize their excellence. We'll have plenty of opportunities to do so over the next three weeks.